In the early hours following the November 5th presidential election, futures contracts tied to U.S. stock exchanges surged, driven largely by news of Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president. Wall Street followed suit, with the Dow, Nasdaq-100, and S&P 500 all hitting record highs on November 6, closing at 43,729.93, 20,781.33, and 5,929.04, respectively. Bitcoin, too, reached an all-time high, selling for $75,824.16 at its peak that morning.
Trump’s first term, barring the pandemic, is widely regarded as a prosperous period for both businesses and workers. When he was inaugurated in 2017, the Dow stood at 19,795.06 and climbed to 29,423.31 by early 2020, marking nearly a 10,000-point increase. Unemployment also fell from 4.8% to 3.5% by September 2019, the lowest rate in over 50 years, with the White House noting that “all Americans are benefiting from the labor market’s continued improvement.” Trump was particularly proud of the drop in Black unemployment, a focus he often highlighted.
As Wall Street reacts favorably to the possibility of a return to Trump’s economic policies, debate remains over the reproducibility of his pre-COVID economic success. Critics argue Trump may have benefited from circumstances rather than personal skill. For example, Snopes acknowledged that “U.S. Unemployment Reached 50-Year Low Under Trump” but asserted, “no evidence showed Trump was responsible for causing the dip,” attributing the continued decline to recovery trends set during the Obama years.
Speculation surrounds the anticipated composition of Trump’s potential second-term cabinet and advisors, with expectations that the administration will feature significantly different personnel. Key players from his first term, such as daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who were instrumental in forging the Abraham Accords, are not expected to return, reportedly due to personal family priorities. Trump’s relationships with former allies like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and former Speaker Paul Ryan also soured over time, particularly following the January 6 events.
However, Trump will likely encounter a reshaped Congress. The GOP has regained a majority in the Senate, though McConnell has stepped down from leadership, and Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to serve as Speaker, replacing Ryan’s influential, if sometimes fraught, leadership role.
Economists are keeping a close watch on Trump’s proposals, particularly his advocacy for tariffs, which some see as a potential threat to economic growth. “Good news: some really bad economic ideas are off the table for a few years. Bad news: some really bad economic ideas are on the table for a few years,” remarked Daniel J. Smith, director of the Political Economy Research Institute at Middle Tennessee State University, following Harris’s loss and Trump’s win.
Yet despite these concerns, corporate America appears ready to support Trump’s return. “Congratulations President Trump on your victory!” Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote on November 6. “We look forward to engaging with you and your administration to help make sure the United States continues to lead with and be fueled by ingenuity, innovation, and creativity.”
